Category Archives: ideas

Guest blogging at Cognitive Edge, Updated

I finished guest blogging at Dave Snowden’s Cognitive Edge site recently.  Go have a look and see what you think. So far I’ve blogged about: Foveal and Peripheral Vision Threats: What Kind of Threats Do We Face in the 21st Century? Learning to See the Unseen New Movement, New Mastery: Perceptual Dexterity in the 21st […]

Resource Bubbles & Commodity Prices: Lessons in Optimism & Pessimism

I recently contributed to an interesting white paper on the future of resource scarcity and commodity prices at GBN.  Check it out here; it’s called, “Winners and Losers in the New Commodity Price Regime” (PDF). Part of what I found so interesting about this exercise was that the project began as a heated debate over whether […]

The Future of Public Services; Innovations in Online Scenario Planning, Part 2

The following mini-scenarios were created using the SenseMaker Suite Scenarios approach developed for my PhD with Dave Snowden and Wendy Schultz.   They were auto-aggregated using narrative fragments contributed by over 265 participants from around the world.  In other words, participants submitted stories of the future, tagged them, and then the system clustered them based […]

Update from the Oxford Futures Forum, 2011

This week (April 18th) I attended the third Oxford Futures Forum at the Said Business School of Oxford University.  Among other things, the Forum aimed to: Forge and support an international community of future-minded practices aimed at actionable knowledge. It was a remarkable gathering of futures practitioners, young and old, with a partial list of […]

Design Thinking as Dog’s Dinner

My friends at Made by Many have an office Strategy Dog.  Her name is Tilly.  She lives in a cardboard box with a sign on it that says, “Strategy Department”.  She tweets at @strategydog and is rapidly gaining more followers than many of us could ever dream.  Here she is, in her full, surreal glory… […]

Eight Ideas for 21st-Century Risk Managers

UPDATE (April, 2011): The full article (“Gifts of Sight“) is now online at Risk Professional magazine.  It is behind a pay wall, but email me and I’ll send you a personal copy. I was recently asked to explain some of the concepts I use in my research to a journalist interested in new developments in […]

An Interview with GBN

I recently did a Q & A for the Fall 2010 issue of the GBN Bulletin (pdf here). Here is an extract from the PDF, in which I talk about crowdsourced scenarios, urban change, design & strategy. I’ve added links and re-inserted a few of references and shout-outs that didn’t make it into the final edit, […]

21st Century Causation

“There was no obvious connection, of course. There never was. Cause and consequence proliferated across the world like a network of fractal cracks, infinitely complex and almost impossible to predict. Explanations in hindsight were a different matter.”

Drawing a Better Panarchy Diagram

I am always on the lookout for good graphics and diagrams for my lectures on complexity and adaptive change. I often use the Panarchy cycle, which is a useful theoretical model for explaining how complex adaptive systems change over time.  The image above is from Garry Peterson‘s excellent page describing Panarchy and the Adaptive Cycle […]

On learning, collapse and the reduction of complexity

“…in its beginning it is easy to cure, but hard to recognize; whereas, after a time, not having been detected and treated at the first, it becomes easy to recognize but impossible to cure.” – Niccolo Machievelli In response to a Twitter conversation with Dave Snowden and Andrew Curry, regarding the need / possibility of […]