I recently was back at MIT presenting some of my research on web-based techniques for collaborative foresight and online scenario planning. Here are the slides from my presentation.
The presentation starts with a general overview of scenario planning, then provides an example from some scenarios work I did with the Oxford Future of Cities Programme (in collaboration with Angela Wilkinson, Ulf Mannervikand Pam Hurley)
It goes on to discuss the theoretical foundations for group learning, sensemaking and decision-making, in the context of rapid environmental change and uncertainty.
I then discuss Malone et al.’s excellent “genome for collective intelligence” schema (from the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence), combining their schema with the basic elements of scenario planning. I then use this to produce a proposal for how online scenario planning systems might work.
This actually produces a range of design decisions which define a parameter space for different collaborative approaches. I define the top seven parameter dimensions along which the system vary, group this into four archetypical system types, and then present the results from one of the several experiments conducted using this approach.
Finally, I present my hypotheses for testing the impacts of online scenario planning and discuss the various limitations and issues which these raise.
We had a great conversation afterwards and I’ll be uploading a white paper based on these ideas soon. In the mean time, thanks for checking this out and please feel free to add comments, suggestions or questions!
PS – The text is a bit small on this embedded presentation. Better to click through, download the PDF, or contact me for the full PPT (Keynote, actually).